Every estimate, and what moved it
The sum of the parts is a quarterly exercise but stays anchored to the 10-K and estimates of normalized earnings power, not quarterly movements. This page is the record of that: every valuation published here, frozen as it was published, with the share price of the day beside it and every line that changed between one and the next.
A valuation is only worth something if you can see how it has moved and why. Every estimate published here is kept whole, with the share price of the day beside it and every line that changed set out in full.
Updated Q3 2026 Balance-sheet marks and share count from the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (September 30, 2026); earnings multiples from the 2025 Form 10-K. Base case $524 per B share. Earlier estimates.
2 estimates, from December 31, 2025 to September 30, 2026. The current one is always at the full valuation page; the rest are frozen and are never restated. Where a frozen figure later turned out to be wrong it is left as published and corrected in the revision log.
| Struck on | Basis | Base case | Range | Base, $ bn | Book value | × book | Price | vs base | Shares, bn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YE 2025 | 31 Dec 2025 | $495 | $458–$525 | $1,069 B | $332.35 | 1.49× | $503 | 1.5% | 2.160 |
| Q3 2026 current | 30 Sep 2026 | $524 | $486–$554 | $1,115 B | $357.73 | 1.46× | $571 | 8.9% | 2.128 |
YE 2025 → Q3 2026
The base case moved $29 per share up, from $495 to $524. Two separate things did it: the share count fell 1.47%, which raises the per-share answer on its own, and 11 of the eighteen lines changed. Book value per share rose 7.63% over the same stretch.
Cash net of the Treasury payable, the quoted portfolio, equity-method carrying value, fixed maturities, the deferred tax on unrealised gains, parent debt and the share count are all read off the Q3 2026 balance sheet. BNSF’s normalised profit was raised to $6.0 B and OxyChem and Taylor Morrison were added to Manufacturing, Service & Retail at $0.7 B and $0.5 B after tax; every other multiple and normalised profit is unchanged from the 2025 Form 10-K.
| Line | Group | YE 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change | Normalised profit | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Equities | investments | $298.0 B | $335.5 B | +$37.5 B | $15.0 B | 20× |
| Cash & T-bills — insurance | cash | $242.0 B | $215.5 B | ($26.5 B) | $7.0 B → $6.5 B | — |
| Manufacturing, Service & Retail | operating | $204.0 B | $222.0 B | +$18.0 B | $13.6 B → $14.8 B | 15× |
| BNSF Railway | operating | $110.0 B | $120.0 B | +$10.0 B | $5.5 B → $6.0 B | 20× |
| Cash & T-bills — parent | cash | $127.0 B | $136.7 B | +$9.7 B | $3.7 B → $4.2 B | — |
| Public equities haircut (10%) | deductions | ($30.0 B) | ($33.6 B) | ($3.6 B) | — | — |
| Deferred Tax Liability | investments | ($41.0 B) | ($43.8 B) | ($2.8 B) | — | — |
| Parent company debt | deductions | ($23.0 B) | ($20.4 B) | +$2.6 B | ($0.5 B) | — |
| Fixed Income | investments | $18.0 B | $17.1 B | ($0.9 B) | $0.6 B | — |
| Equity Method Investments | investments | $20.0 B | $20.7 B | +$0.7 B | $1.8 B | — |
| Deferred tax relief on haircut | deductions | $4.0 B | $4.4 B | +$0.4 B | — | — |
A line whose value moved while its normalised profit and multiple held is a balance-sheet mark — a fact that was reported, not a judgement that was revised. A line whose normalised profit or multiple moved is the second kind, and those are the ones worth arguing with.
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